Confidence abounds in the north­ern regions while the green shoots of recovery are increasingly evident in the south, according to Home.co.uk's November Asking Price Index.

The property website has found that overall, the UK property sales market is in good shape, with current growth driven mainly by the northern power­house regions and the latest rate cut by the Bank of England.

Above-infla­tion growth may well return to London and the southern regions next year. Most importantly, properties are moving through the market with ease as demand has increased sufficiently to match heightened supply.

The tailwind of lower borrowing costs will undoubtedly boost activity further. However, the stamp duty hike announced in Labour's first budget is clearly a step in the wrong direction.

Such a move will only compound fundamental supply issues in the rental market by deter­ring much-needed investment. Conse­quently, chronic scarcity will continue to drive rents even higher.

The northern regions of England, the West Midlands, Scotland and Wales have enjoyed significant home price growth over the last twelve months. These infla­tion-beating gains are supporting the national figures and are in stark contrast to the lacklustre performance of the southern and eastern regions including London. 

The regional growth leader is the North East which continues its impres­sive run, with the mix-adjusted average now 6.9% higher than a year ago. The better rental yields in the North have clearly had a significant effect on inves­tors' appetites.

Overall, UK asking rent growth is keeping pace with inflation (1.1%), but this annualised national growth figure obscures huge dif­ferences regionally between Greater London at -3.9% and the two best per­formers, Wales (+15.2%) and Yorkshire (+14.4%).

The annualised mix-adjusted average asking price growth (sales) across Eng­land and Wales is now 2.0%; in Novem­ber 2023, the annualised growth of home prices was -1.6%.

Headlines

• Asking prices indicate an anticipated seasonal decline of -0.3% since last month across England and Wales, while annualised home price growth extends to 2.0%, driven mainly by capital growth in the North and Wales.
• The UK property market continues to show renewed vitality. Property turnover is currently higher than during most of the last ten years and Typical Time on Market remains significantly lower than in pre-pandemic November 2019.
• Such is the volume of property moving through the market that, despite a large uptick in new instructions in October, the total of unsold property fell significantly over the same period.
• The total number of new instructions entering the market during October 2024 was 14% more than during October 2023. The North West saw the highest regional increase, up by 21%.
• The unsold sales stock count for England and Wales fell by just over 13,000 during the last month, making the current total 495,618.
• Seasonal price dips were observed in most English regions and Wales. However, prices continued to rise in Scotland and the North West over the last month, while in London they remained unchanged.
• The North East holds its top position in regional property market growth; the year-on-year gain increased to 6.9%. In second place is Yorkshire at 4.2%.
• The East of England is the worst performing region, indicating an increase of just 0.1% over the last twelve months.
• Comparing national home price growth to inflation over the last five years shows that gains during the COVID boom are illusionary in real terms. The real price growth for England and Wales was -17.3% (vs RPI) or -8.3% (vs CPI).
• The annualised national growth for asking rents is just 1.1%, which is dragged down by London's falls. However, Wales followed by Yorkshire continue to indicate double-digit growth of 15.2% and 14.4% respectively year-on-year. Meanwhile, the worsening year-on-year decline in Greater London rents is now -3.9%.
• The City of London shows the greatest decline in asking rents of all London boroughs with an annualised rental fall of 15.6%.

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