Professor Joe Nellis is economic adviser at MHA, the accountancy and advisory firm.

The Halifax House Price Index reveals a housing market caught between stability and strain. A rise in prices of 0.6% in October shows resilient demand but year-on-year growth of 1.9% is one of the weakest paces in 2025.

The overall figures show a market losing momentum but not collapsing. Buyers remain cautious, stretched by higher mortgage rates and cost-of-living pressures, while sellers are holding firm on price expectations. The result is a market that is quiet and marred by uncertainty, despite more positive growth in October than expected.

Attention now turns to the Autumn Budget, which could prove pivotal. With growth faltering and the property market largely subdued, calls are mounting for targeted housing incentives — from stamp duty reform to support for first-time buyers. Yet any major stimulus risks reigniting inflation just as the Bank of England tries to consolidate its progress.

The housing market in London and the South East remains muted.

What could the Chancellor do to get London moving? One option is to reform stamp duty in regeneration zones through a time-limited stamp duty relief. This would focus on converting redundant buildings and brownfield sites, accelerating housing and commercial redevelopment and encouraging density and reuse rather than sprawl.

However, any measure that fuels property prices without tackling supply constraints would heighten inequality and affordability pressures. Support for new building and infrastructure must therefore accompany any fiscal incentive.

For now, the housing market is treading water, with resilience in the northern regions offset by weakness in the South. Developers and investors are shifting focus to lower-cost, higher-yield markets, while homeowners eye the Budget for clues on whether help — or more headwinds — are on the way.

If the Chancellor delivers credible support without fuelling new price pressures, 2026 could mark the start of a slow but sustainable recovery.